Tuesday, March 26, 2013

forget the proper ratio of min to median ...how about a minimum wage nominal floor lifter

i think we might look at this hypothetical system

we set not a minimum hourly wage rate
but design an algorithm
that lifted the minimum wage
by cpi plus n% a year
n to be some thing like 10%
how would wage share in gdp develop
if the system
was driving the nominal bottom up up up ?


this is not to slight in any way
the static question
what is the optimal min to median ratio ?

 just  in addition
    let's  consider
the change in the price system
the operating mark ups
if firms ...even firms
that never pay as low as
the minimum to any hires...
what if they knew they faced this relentless nominal wage push coming at them
from the bottom up

hegel lesson for the day






the government, the individual citizens

and the needs or external life of the individuals, are three terms, each

of which is the middle of the other two. The government is the

absolute centre in which the extreme of the individuals is united with

their external existence; similarly, the individuals are the middle term

that activate that universal individual into external concrete existence

and translate their moral essence into the extreme of actuality. The

third syllogism is the formal syllogism, that of an illusory show, in

which the individuals purport to be linked to this universal absolute

individuality by their needs and external existence; a syllogism which,

as merely subjective, passes over into the others and in them has its

truth.

job less ness...must be : a nasty purgatory... if not a living hell

okay so the SSA's retirement system is actually soiund....but but but ...what about its disability payment system

"The typical DI beneficiary is in his or her late 50s — 70 percent are over age 50, and 30 percent are 60 or older — and suffers from a severe mental, musculoskeletal, circulatory, respiratory, or other debilitating impairment. His or her earnings fell sharply in the years before applying to the program. Only a minority of beneficiaries can do any work, and even fewer are able to do substantial work (enough to support themselves without help), studies generally conclude"




of course the word here is not "work"
as in do ANY  work

 but get ANY  job

 and obviously
  the training and attention on the job
to learn how to hold on to it

great job based  society we got  here

if you are easily and costlessly exploitable

otherwise

  you get benched

and your fellow jobsters pay you a "retainer"

Monday, March 25, 2013

the wage stag now past 40

Year Weekly Earnings (1982-84 dollars)

1972 $341.73 (peak)
1975 $314.77
1980 $290.80
1985 $284.96
1990 $271.10
1992 $266.46 (lowest point; 22% below peak)
1995 $267.17
2000 $285.00
2005 $285.05
2010 $297.79
2011 $295.49
2012 $294.83 (still 14% below peak)

the wipe out of mass white collar jobs...disguised inside some ivy crowned gibberish

"This paper examines shifts over time in the relative demand for skilled labor in the United States. "

" Although de-skilling in the conventional sense did occur overall in nineteenth century manufacturing, a more nuanced picture.."

see that word "nuance "struggle rangers
   and put your neurons into algorithmic  lockdown

"  the share of “middle-skill” jobs
 – artisans –
        declined "

while

" high-skill”
 – white collar, non-production workers –
and “low-skill”
 – operatives and laborers -
                       increased. "

nuance ?
sounds like what we knew all along

but soft....


 "De-skilling did not occur in the aggregate economy"

" the aggregate shares of low skill jobs decreased, middle skill jobs remained steady, and
white collar jobs  expanded from 1850 to the early twentieth century."

------------------------------------------------------

comes the reckoning :

"   The pattern of monotonic skill upgrading continued through much of the twentieth century until the recent “polarization” of labor demand since the late 1980s."

white collar jobs clobbered by automation ?
ending the long era when
"  ... the demand for white collar  workers
grew more rapidly than the supply starting well before the Civil War."

moral of tale ?

an old one


eventually they come for you too

Sunday, March 24, 2013

un ending ....wage eraners stage a custer's last stand.....get caught in a in a time loop




behold
the  "sorry no raise this time kids "
                                                                      cobra 

Saturday, March 23, 2013

reindustrialization is coming to a low tax low wage park near you ...maybe but ....will manufacturing employment turn around too


manufacturing_employmentAgriculture-s-share-of-US-employment_chart

corporate pension pay out exposure estimated to be over two trillion

nice vanishing act potential there eh ?

the ultimate retirement plan  insurer ?

 uncle's treasury


btw  mr and mrs job stiff

which do you place greater  faith in ?


that two trillion dollar group promise
 or uncles two trillion plus
                 in the SSA trust funds

Friday, March 22, 2013

post credit crisis mass swap down.... mid to low wage jobs

"About two-thirds of all job losses resulting from the recession were in moderate-wage occupations, such as manufacturing, skilled construction, and office administration jobs. "


" these occupations have accounted for less than one-quarter of subsequent job gains."

" The declines in lower-wage occupations--such as retail sales and food service--accounted for about one-fifth of job loss,"

" a bit more than one-half of subsequent job gains. "


" recent job gains have been largely concentrated in lower-wage occupations
 such as retail sales, food preparation, manual labor, home health care, and customer service  "

"about one-quarter of all workers are considered "low wage"

"low wage was defined as $23,005 per year or $11.06 per hour"



"the average wage for new hires have actually declined since 2010."

net job creation rate : nothing to get drunk about


Monthly Job Growth
btp-2013-03-21
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

it could be worse here...this could be the euro corral

bad graphics can tell the truth anyway






we fell way more but began recovery a bit sooner and rose  faster  in the barry recovery
 then in the bush recovery

but by now the bush recovery had restored prior job peak


not so barry reovery

now look at the clinton recovery

ya .......different

U decide between em ..i can't

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Riberty hired by the retail detail

The herb sorrel institute has morphed Into the retail detail Why? I guess I don't know why But I do know the studio union movement has no place anymore for this particular third generation sorrel Staying close to Hollywood ? Sure but now it's hollywood Florida Just 10 miles south of here ... as the pelican flies I hear the surf of atlantic America singing The first sorrel to hear it since grand daddy'd daddy left the ozarks for mr bryan's lot boom

Guest post by riberty rhee

We need to replace the income tax with a tax on wealth and a tax on human capital I'll focus on the hu-cap tax Potential annual Earnings are assessed and taxed with a progressive tax rate schedule Perhaps with an opening negative tax interval Assessment by a complex algorithm including experience skill set and back ground life time earnings Think by perfect analogy Of a george tax A tax on ground rent Consider this as a anti parasitism law converted into a hidden talent excavator Recall the neo classical perfection No tax at the extensive margin of effort this coming year

Monday, March 4, 2013

greaser count ..by a bogus outfit but look anyway

  • Of the 465 civilian occupations, only four are majority immigrant.
  •  These four occupations account for less than 1 percent of the total U.S. workforce.
  •  Moreover, native-born Americans comprise 47 percent of workers in these occupations.
  • Many jobs often thought to be overwhelmingly immigrant are in fact majority native-born:
    • Maids and housekeepers: 55 percent native-born
    • Taxi drivers and chauffeurs: 58 percent native-born
    • Butchers and meat processors: 63 percent native-born
    • Grounds maintenance workers: 65 percent native-born
    • Construction laborers: 65 percent native-born
    • Porters, bellhops, and concierges: 71 percent native-born
    • Janitors: 75 percent native-born

  • There are 93 occupations in which 20 percent or more of workers are immigrants.
  •  These high-immigrant occupations are primarily, but not exclusively, lower-wage jobs that require relatively little formal education.
  • There are 23.6 million natives in these high-immigrant occupations (20 percent or more immigrant). These occupations include 19 percent of all native workers.
  • Most natives do not face significant job competition from immigrants; however, those who do tend to be less-educated and poorer than those who face relatively little competition from immigrants.
  • In high-immigrant occupations, 57 percent of natives have no more than a high school education. In occupations that are less than 20 percent immigrant, 35 percent of natives have no more than a high school education. And in occupations that are less than 10 percent immigrant, only 26 percent of natives have no more than a high school education.
  • In high-immigrant occupations the average wages and salary for natives is one-fourth lower than in occupations that are less than 20 percent immigrant.
  • Some may believe that natives in high-immigrant occupations are older and that few young natives are willing to do that kind of work. But 33 percent of natives in these occupations are age 30 or younger. In occupations that are less than 20 percent immigrant, 28 percent of natives are 30 or younger.
  • It is worth remembering that not all high-immigrant occupations are lower-skilled and lower-wage. For example, 44 percent of medical scientists are immigrants, as are 34 percent of software engineers, 27 percent of physicians, and 25 percent of chemists.
  • It is also worth noting that a number of politically important groups tend to face very little job competition from immigrants. For example, just 10 percent of reporters are immigrants, as are only 6 percent of lawyers and judges and 3 percent of farmers and ranchers.

  • make way for the gals and the greasers...participation rate and the swooning minimum wage

    Graph of Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate

    its common wise guy prog knowledge
    the minimum wage peaked at around ten bucks in constant dollars back in 1968

    now its what ?

    $  7.25 ?


    this graph shows constant (pink ) and current (blue)  rates
    thru 2005 --just before the last increase flurry up from 5.15 to the current 7.25 in '09  ---

    Fed_min_wage.jpg
    lets say this reduction increased participation
    look it jiggered around for nearly two decades prior to the crest in the minimum

    so starting there at great society heights
    the participation rate
    moved up from 60% to a peak of 67% in the last years of the  clinton miracle

    so far so good

    but then what

    we're back to where we were in 1980 at 64%

    clinton perspective
    7% more jobs  for a 25% cut in base pay

    barry years

    4% participation for the same 25% pay cut

    ----- min wage has wobbled around going no where since 2000----








    note women are 60% of min wwage workers

    look at gal participation rate dynamics Graph of Labor Force Participation Rate - Women



    guys

    Graph of Labor Force Participation Rate - Men
    look similar ?

    the two rates are now only 10% apart versus  more then 35 % apart
    when LBJ showed his pecker to goldberg

    The min index is a good struggle node

    The minimum wage wars may heat up Consider this The federal minimum wage around $15 dollars per hour and indexed That might be a reasonable goal The wage structure as is for many reasons good and not so good Is not top of the mind for most job class types We have little notion of how our neighbors are arranged in a compensation hierarchy We might consider a clear diagram Of this our class our society profile as a start to comprehension

    Shifting proportions between mid pay and low pay jobs

    "A recent presentation from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco lays out the situation clearly. The vast majority of job losses during the recession were in middle-income occupations, and they’ve largely been replaced by low-wage jobs since 2010:Mid-wage occupations, paying between $13.83 and $21.13 per hour, made up about 60 percent of the job losses during the recession. But those mid-wage jobs have made up just 27 percent of the jobs gained during the recovery. By contrast, low-wage occupations paying less than $13.83 per hour have utterly dominated the recovery, with 58 percent of the job gains since 2010. (This data all comes from an earlier report (pdf) from the National Employment Law Project.)"